Just when you thought it was safe to venture out from the football season, there is still one more tournament to play for this term.
The UEFA Nations League is a tournament enjoyed by some, mocked by others, yet the third edition is still to be determined in the week ahead.
This semi-final between Holland and Croatia in Rotterdam certainly offers a good opportunity for one of the international game’s nearly men of recent decades to reach a final.
Talking Points
Both nations are here on merit after enjoying Nations League highlights in their respective groups
Croatia edged Denmark in a group which also contained then World champions France and Austria.
Meanwhile, Holland were unbeaten as they topped a pool comprising near-neighbours Belgium, Poland and Wales.
Oranje could do with a boost.
Sure, they beat the minnows of Gibraltar last time out in Euro 2024 qualifying but opened their campaign in March with a 4-0 crushing at the hands of France, a match in which they were 2-0 down inside eight minutes and a contest which marked the start of Ronald Koeman’s second tenure as national team manager.
Netherlands head coach Ronald Koeman giving press conference
Their previous match had marked the end of the Louis van Gaal era where they were unfortunate to lose in a penalty shoot-out to eventual champions Argentina in the World Cup quarter-finals.
One of their men to impress at the tournament was centre-back Josko Gvardiol but the highly-rated RB Leipzig man will have to sit this one out – and the final should Croatia get there – with a groin injury.
Holland have a significant absence of their own ahead of this clash as Memphis Depay has still not recovered from the calf problem that kept him out for the past month.
Daley Blind, Ryan Gravenberch, Steven Berghuis, Stefan de Vrij and Jeremie Frimpong – who has turned down an offer to compete at the Under-21 Euros – are among the other absentees.
It remains to be seen if Nathan Ake and Denzel Dumfries are considered after their involvement in Saturday’s Champions League Final – unlikely one suspects.
These sides have only met twice in their history with one victory apiece.
The only competitive meeting was the third-place play-off in the 1998 World Cup when goals from two Croatian greats, Robert Prosinecki and captain Davor Suker, who was the top scorer at that tournament, sealed a 2-1 win.
Bolo Zenden was on target for the Dutch.
When they met, albeit in a friendly 10 years later, Holland ran out 3-0 winners in Zagreb with Johnny Heitinga, Klaas Jan Huntelaar and the grandly named Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink the marksmen.
Holland reached the final of the inaugural Nations League four years ago and would love to go one better this time around.
I certainly think they will edge this one.
The SBOTOP Nations League betting odds fancy the home side who can be backed 1X2 @ 1.97 and Asian Handicap -0.50 @ 1.98.
Croatia are priced 1X2 @ 3.35 and Asian Handicap +0.25 @ 2.25.
A first draw between the nations (even though the tie has to be ultimately decided on the night) will pay out @ 3.35.
For goals, it is worth considering over 2.25 @ 1.96, Total Goal 0-1 @ 2.62, 2-3 @ 1.82 and 4-6 @ 4.20.
This end-of-season affair could be tame between two sets of players who have had a long enough season for club and country, or it could be considered a real boon to reach the final, which takes place in Holland next weekend against the winners of the Spain-Italy tie.
Out of their nine UEFA Nations League games on home soil so far, the Netherlands have only been defeated once – going down 1-0 to Italy in September 2020.
I am going to go for a Holland victory and for them to lead at both the break and the final whistle.
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UEFA Nations League: Italy Can Redeem Themselves After Missing the World Cup
Spain vs Italy
The stage is set for the 2023 UEFA Nations League, with four countries left in the semi-finals. After taking the top spots in Groups 1 to 4 in League A, the Netherlands will take on Croatia, while Spain meet Italy on the other side of the bracket.
Today, we will feature the match between Spain and Italy, who have experience going far in this particular tournament. In the previous edition of this competition in 2021, Spain finished as runners-up behind France, while Italy were in third place.
This is going to be Luis de la Fuente’s third competitive game as the head coach for Spain, and he will take on a grizzled veteran tactician in Roberto Mancini. But despite the gulf of experience between these two managers, the pre-game SBOTOP betting odds predict a tight affair.
Talking Points
De la Fuente under pressure in Spain
Reports from Spain claim that Luis de la Fuente is already close to the sack, despite just two matches with La Roja to date.
De la Fuente was appointed to be Luis Enrique’s successor in December, which took everyone by surprise back then. His two games so far came in the Euro 2024 qualifiers, where he won 3-0 against Norway and lost 2-0, surprisingly, against Scotland.
Because of this sudden development, this match against Italy is going to be treated as a must-win in order to settle the nerves.
Spain’s Dani Olmo in action against Spain during the UEFA Euro 2020
There’s a huge possibility that de la Fuente won’t have a full squad, as Juan Bernat and Dani Olmo are listed as doubtful for Thursday.
Both La Roja stars are dealing with muscular issues and are not taking part in the full training sessions. Bernat is likely to pull out of the squad, which will see him replaced by Fran Garcia, while Olmo will stay in the rotation.
This is a big opportunity for Real Madrid’s new signing, as the 23-year-old could take over the starting left-back spot for La Roja.
The injury-prone Bernat had made 11 caps for Spain and scored one goal, while Olmo had already recorded six goals in 30 caps for Spain.
Winning will speed up Italy’s youth project
Since their Euro 2020 triumph, the Azzurri are in the midst of a rebuild after missing out on the World Cup last year, and avenging their loss against Spain in 2021 is a step in the right direction.
Roberto Mancini revealed his new-look squad against England in the Euro 2024 qualifiers but lost. However, they bounced back with a 2-0 win over Malta in the next game.
Italy may have found a new striker in Mateo Retegui, as the 24-year-old scored in both of his first two games for the national team. He has played well for Tigre in the Argentine Primeira Division this season, and teams such as Inter Milan are already lining up for his signature this summer.
Other than Retegui, Italy have a few more youngsters to look out for on Thursday, namely Gianluigi Donnarumma, Sandro Tonali, Wilfried Gnonto, Gianluca Scamacca, and Giorgio Scalvini.
Thursday marks the first meeting between Spain and Italy in two years. In their 39 competitive matches before this game, Spain had won 12 times, while Italy had won 11 times, along with 16 draws.
They last faced off in the 2021 UEFA Nations League semi-finals, where Spain defeated Italy at San Siro with a score of 2-1 to end Italy’s world-record 37-game undefeated streak, as Ferran Torres recorded a brace while Lorenzo Pellegrini scored a consolation goal late.
That was the Azzurri’s first competitive loss at home since 1999.
They also met in the semi-finals of Euro 2020, which was also held in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The match was level at 1-1 in regular time, but Italy came away with the win (and eventually the title) after beating Spain 4-2 in the penalty shootout.
Spain were given the edge in the UEFA Nations League 2023 odds to advance on Thursday. La Roja were priced to win at 2.20, while Italy aren’t far behind at 3.15, and a draw is at 3.05 in the 1×2 market.
Given that these two sides are evenly matched on paper, this semi-final tiff could go either way. Instead, we’ll be looking at the possible goal count for this contest, and Total Goal 2-3 at 1.85 is your best bet.
Basically, football fans should expect to see enough goals that will be included in the UEFA Nations League 2023 highlights reel.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR () BETS ARE WORTH:
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Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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UEFA Nations League: Can the Hosts Manage a Third Place Victory?
Netherlands vs Italy
Netherlands and Italy are left to duel for the bronze medal of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League after losing in the semi-finals last night.
Italy’s path to redemption after missing the World Cup was halted when they were beaten by Spain, while hosts Netherlands are not going to celebrate the big silverware in front of their home fans after losing to Croatia.
Both nations have finished in the Top 3 before in this tournament, so winning the third-place play-off will give them a sense of pride, which will surely help as they prepare for the continuation of the Euro 2024 qualifiers in September.
And with Netherlands and Italy boasting top-tier talent, SBOTOP football fans can expect UEFA Nations League 2023 highlights from this Sunday fixture.
Ronald Koeman’s second managerial stint in Netherlands hasn’t gone according to plan thus far after succeeding Louis van Gaal following last year’s Qatar World Cup.
To be fair, Koeman’s squad is not at full strength, as the likes of Ryan Gravenberch, Steven Berghuis, Stefan de Vrij, and Jeremie Frimpong were not listed on the national team, while Memphis Depay is sidelined through injury.
Depay, the Oranje’s second-all-time leading scorer with 44 goals, is dealing with a calf injury that he sustained last month, and there’s no timetable for his return.
With Depay out, Cody Gakpo was thrust into the No. 9 role for Netherlands, but he hasn’t regained his Qatar World Cup form. However, they should still have enough ammunition with the likes of Donyell Malen, Xavi Simons, Noa Lang, Steven Bergwijn, and Wout Weghorst available.
In the past few months, Koeman has been focused on developing his younger players, which has resulted in Lutsharel Geertruida recording two caps for the Oranje.
Geertruida has been linked with a move to Barcelona after emerging as one of the best young full-backs in Netherlands this season, chipping in three goals and three assists to help Feyenoord win the Eredivisie crown.
Pairing Geertruida with Virgil van Dijk should only make him better, given the Liverpool star’s big-game experience. Now, if they could lessen the number of goals that they concede, that would improve their UEFA Nations League 2023 odds.
Italy’s midfield depth
Roberto Mancini surprised everyone when he picked Davide Frattesi ahead of Marco Verratti against Spain, and the Sassuolo star repaid the manager’s trust with a breakout performance.
Frattesi was arguably the best player on the pitch for the Azzurri, as La Roja struggled to contain him. The 23-year-old even found the back of the net in the first half, which was disallowed by the VAR, and he had another great chance late in the game, only to see his shot saved by Spain’s Unai Simon.
Italy’s Davide Frattesi celebrates scoring their second goal against Spain before it was disallowed by VAR
He was paired with Nicolo Barella in the middle, who also had a good performance. Barella is being eyed by several Premier League clubs this summer, with Newcastle United reportedly offering a £50 million fee for his services.
Mancini will have to make a decision on who will lead their midfield this Sunday, as other than Barella and Frattesi, he also has the likes of Bryan Cristante, Nicolo Zaniolo, and Jorginho.
History
Netherlands and Italy last met in the 2021 UEFA Nations League group stage. In their first encounter, Italy beat Netherlands 1-0, courtesy of Nicolo Barella, while Netherlands held Italy to a 1-1 draw in their reverse fixture as Donny van de Beek cancelled out Lorenzo Pellegrini’s goal.
Italy qualified for the Nations League finals after topping Group A, with Netherlands finishing second, losing out by only a point.
The Azzurri eventually finished third after losing to Spain 2-1 in the semi-finals before beating Belgium with the same scoreline in the third-place play-off.
The Oranje have never won an international trophy for more than 35 years now, with their last major title being the 1988 European Championship. Meanwhile, Italy’s last silverware came in 2021, when they won the Euro 2020.
Netherlands’ last win against Italy in any competitive setting was a 3-0 result back in the Euro 2008 group stage, when Ruud van Nistelrooy, Wesley Sneijder, and Giovanni van Bronckhorst all found the back of the net.
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UEFA Nations League: Spain and Croatia can produce a Classic
Spain vs Croatia
The 2023 UEFA Nations League comes to a climax in Rotterdam on Sunday when Spain and Croatia are set to battle it out for glory in the showcase final.
2021 runners up Spain qualified on Thursday night by beating Italy 2-1 while Croatia reached the final, in some style, with a 4-2 win over the highly fancied Netherlands. It promises to be a fascinating clash between two well matched nations who sit just three places apart on the World FIFA Rankings. Croatia are currently rated the seventh best team in the world with Spain sitting tenth, but the UEFA Nations League 2023 betting oddsgive Luis de la Fuente’s Spain a clear edge.
Croatia head coach Zlatco Dalic has led his nation to a final and semi-final of the World Cup over the past five years and he has big game players who can cause an upset, and it all adds up to a potentially classic finale.
Talking Points
La Roja aiming to go one better
Spain heaped more misery on Italy, who failed to qualify for the World Cup, by beating the Azzurri 2-1 in the semi-final and, having narrowly lost the 2021 Nations League final to France, La Fuente’s team is determined to win their first silverware in over a decade. Substitute Joselu stole the headlines in the win over Italy, scoring a late winner after Ciro Immobile had cancelled out Yeremy Pino’s early strike. He’d only been on the pitch five minutes when he scored his 89th minute winner, but the 33 year old Espanyol star has made an explosive start to his belated international career, netting three times in three appearances. Joselu pounced to guide home after Rodri’s goal bound shot was deflected into his path.
Manchester City’s Rodri in action against Inter Milan’s Marcelo Brozovic during the Champions League final
Defensive midfielder Rodri has had a career defining week, scoring the winner as Manchester City beat Inter Milan to win the Champions League and he is an influential player in this Spain team, which has a superb blend of youth and experience. Jordi Alba, Alvaro Morata and Jesus Navas have racked up over 200 caps between them while the likes of Pino, Gavi and Ansu Fati are at the start of their international journeys.
The stage is set for more Modric Magic
He’s been one of the outstanding players of the last two decades and would get in anyone’s best 11 of the 21st century, and Croatia’s all time greatest, Luka Modric, is still writing the headlines at the grand old age of 37.The Real Madrid acecapped off a man-of-the-matchperformance in Croatia’s semi-final win over the Netherlands, with a late extra-time penalty to seal the win. He had already won one spot-kick, converted by Andrej Kramaric, as the Croats outplayed a strangely disjointed Oranje side. Modric will make his 166th appearance for his country in the Sunday final and the stage is set for him to strut his stuff yet again.
Modric is part of a commanding midfield, with Chelsea’s Mateo Kovacic and Inter Milan’s Marcelo Brozovic alongside, while Croatia have Spurs winger Ivan Perisic and Atalanta’s Mario Pasalic to stretch any opposition defence. Another player to watch is Union Berlin wingback Josip Juranovic who has a fast growing reputation as a strong defender and a dangerous attacking right back.
But in terms of goals, a lot rests on the shoulders of TSG Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramaric.
Both these teams have been amongst the world’s elite over the past decade or so. Spain were World Champions in 2010 and are three times European Champions, meanwhile Croatia were World Cup runners-up in 2018 and semi-finalists in 2022.
The two nations have met nine times, Spain winning five to Croatia’s three and La Roja came out on top in the last encounter, winning a 5-3 thriller in the 2021 European Championships Round of 16.
In terms of recent form the Croats are slightly stronger, with three wins, two draws and a single defeat in the last six games while Span have won two, drawn two and lost two.
Here at SBOTOP we’ll be back with all the UEFA Nations League 2023 highlights on Sunday night but, in the meantime, let’s pick a winner.
With Croatia at 3.40 and the draw at 3.35 all three outcomes are well in play and, with Luka Modric in their ranks, Croatia are always in with a shout.
But I’m leaning towards Spain, who have the better balance of youth and experience, a deeper squad and, in Rodri, a man on top of his game.
A SHORT EXPLANATION ON HOW OUR () BETS ARE WORTH:
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= €10 (CONFIDENT)
= €5 (SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT)
Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.
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A Sunday night full of Nations League highlights to round off – albeit much later than ideal – the final tournament of the 2022-23 football season with a piece of silverware up for grabs.
My SBOTOP colleague had also predicted Spanish success, Viva Espana, after studying the Nations League betting odds and tipping them to go one better than last time in this competition when they were beaten in the 2021 final.
Yet, in the words of Croatia manager Zlatko Dalić, his money was on the greatest ever Croatian football generation.
Who was I to believe?!
Highlights of the game
Dalic made just one change to his team which started the 4-2 extra time semi-final victory over Holland on Wednesday as Martin Erlic replaced Domagoj Vida at the heart of the defence.
Meanwhile, Bruno Petkovic, who scored the winner in extra time against the Dutch, was named on the bench.
Bruno Petkovic looking dejected after missing a penalty during penalty shootout
Napoli midfielder Fabian Ruiz was handed a starting berth alongside Rodri in central midfield, replacing Mikel Merino, while Marco Asensio replaced Rodrigo out wide.
Both sides made tentative starts; understandably given there was a trophy at stake and, in one nation’s case, the chance to win a first major honour.
Indeed, the last six years had been like a dream for Croatia fans; silver and bronze medals at consecutive World Cups, reaching the knockout stage at Euro 2020 and now another medal at the UEFA Nations League.
But if it could be a gold medal rather than another silver, then history would be made for the country which effectively only began life as an independent football nation in the early 1990s.
For Spain, European champions in 2008 and 2012 with a World Cup triumph sandwiched in between, this was a stage to which they were far more accustomed and they threw down an early warning as talented youngster Gavi skimmed a powerful low shot just wide of Dominik Livakovic’s right-hand post 12 minutes in.
That was pretty much the closest we came to a goal in the opening half as both sides probed without creating, although the promptings of Ivan Perisic and captain Luka Modric, winning his 166th international cap, seemed to be sharper than those in red.
For all of that, Spain went closest to breaking the deadlock 12 minutes after the restart when Jordi Alba scampered down the left and hung a cross to Asensio whose header sailed high but acted as a warning.
Midway through the half, and with it looking like one goal would be enough for either side, Spain turned to talented 20 year-old Ansu Fati and Joselu, the late goal hero against the Italians.
Still opportunities remained at a premium, although I am unsure whether that was down to two sides cancelling each other out or failing to go all out with one lapse threatening to decide the outcome.
Indeed, the Spanish bench were up on their feet in anticipation of a goal when Fati rifled in a powerful low effort which was goalbound until Perisic superbly cleared the ball off the line.
Asensio then went close in stoppage time when he raced onto a bouncing ball but could not get his shot on target and extra time loomed.
Into the additional 30 minutes and fine run and block by Mateo Kovacic denied a likely Spanish opener, while Unai Simon had to be alert to keep out Marcelo Brozovic as extra-time went one way and then the other.
And so onto the dreaded penalty shoot-out as the only way to separate two sides who deserve enormous praise for their stamina at the end of a campaign like no other.
Of course, there could only be one winner and, following one miss apiece in the initial five spot-kicks, it was Bruno Petkovic who proved to be the fall-guy as his sudden death spot-kick was missed, allowing substitute Dani Carvajal to win it for Spain.
They are victorious and, while Croatia deserve so many plaudits, this may be as close as they come to a trophy for a generation.
Key statistics
Spain have not lost any of their 18 games with Fabian Ruiz in the team in all competitions (won 11, drawn seven), an unbeaten record for any player for the Spanish national team since August 2010.
This was the 10th meeting between Croatia and Spain. La Roja lead the head-to-head with six victories (drawn one, lost three).
What’s next?
And that concludes the campaign for both these nations.
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14-Jun 2023 Wednesday
6:05 PM (336 days ago)
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