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US jobs data:
-Nonfarm payroll for May came in at +138,000 (Reuters poll: +185,000).
-April’s payroll revised lower to +174,000 from +211,000.
-Jobless rate at 4.3% (Reuters poll: 4.4%).
- Fed’s Harker (voter):
-Fed's unwinding of balance sheet will be slow and essentially on auto pilot.
-Still sees three rate increases in total in 2017.
-May payroll report was a good number; job creation is still strong.
-Inflation is on track despite recent declines; concern over recent soft inflation data is unwarranted.
-Sees reaching inflation goal around end of this year.
-The largest risk to the economy is fiscal uncertainty; stocks have been buoyed by hopes for a tax cut; gains could be reversed if fiscal policy doesn't follow through.
-Lack of clarity on tax policy is creating ambiguity that could harm business investment.
- Fed’s Kaplan (voter):
-Says optimistic about ability to renegotiate trade agreements with Mexico, Canada.
-We've still got slack but we are moving toward full employment.
- NY Times report:
-Trump reportedly has chosen Randal Quarles and Marvin Goodfriend for two of three open positions on the Fed Board of Governors.
-Both are seen as conservative counterweights to Yellen and have expressed reservations about aggressive Fed actions to restart economic growth since the 2008 crisis.
-Goodfriend is a former Fed official who is now an economics professor at Carnegie Mellon.
-Quarles is a Treasury Department official from the George Bush administration.
- Reuters poll:
-18 of 18 US primary dealers surveyed after May payrolls report see Fed hiking interest rates to 1.00-1.25 pct at ""June’s"" meeting.
-10 of 18 primary dealers see Fed raising rates to 1.25-1.50 pct at ""Sep"" meeting.
-6 of 18 primary dealers see Fed raising rates to 1.25-1.50 pct at ""Dec"" meeting.
-6 of 18 dealers see Fed announcement on balance sheet normalization in Sept; rest see such a move in Dec.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Hatzius:
-Raises estimate on a possible rate hike later this month to 90 percent from 80 percent.
-Expects balance sheet announcement in Sept.
-Pushes forecast for next hike from Sept to Dec.
- CFTC/Reuters:
-Speculators raise net short USD bets to largest in nine months.
-EUR net longs climb to highest since May 2011.
- UK PM May:
-General election will go ahead on June 8.
- Survation/Mail poll on UK election:
-Spread between Conservatives and Labour narrows to 1 point.
-Conservatives at 40% (-6 points) while Labour at 39% (+5 points).
- Markets:
-USD dropped across the board after disappointing jobs data.
-USD/SGD lost -0.40% to hit fresh year’s low of 1.3805 before settling at 1.3806.
-EUR/USD hit 1.1285, highest level since last November.
-GBP/USD closed higher by +0.10% last Friday before ending at 1.2893 but opened lower this morning at 1.2855 after weekend’s terror attach in London.
-US 10-year yield crashed to fresh 2017 low, closing lower by 5.8bps at 2.159%.
-US stocks continues to march higher, DJIA and S&P 500 are up by +0.29% (21.206) and +0.37% (2439.07) respectively.
-Brent crude closed below %50 (at $49.95), the first time since early May.
This message was edited by ferari on 05-Jun-2017 @ 12:21 PM
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